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Indian Election Analysis

Saurabh Saksena
03/12/2012

Uttar Pradesh

1. UP voted for a strong regional party Samajwadi Party (SP) with a thumping win - a majority, to replace Mayawati led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). BSP stood second.

2. SP gained predominantly from an anti Mayawati mood due to her corruption and high handedness. Add to it, SP's chief Mulayam Singh Yadav's son Akhilesh Yadav (an MS in Environmental Engg. from Sydney, Australia) became the young face for the voters. 

3. Both national parties - INC and BJP fared poorly in the elections making them far more insignificant in state politics. BJP's campaign was low profile and they never boasted of govt. formation. However, they took some gambles like bringing in Uma Bharti from MP - a firebrand leader as their OBC face and bringing in Sanjay Joshi known to be anti-Modi for his organizational skills. They also did not bring Narendra Modi and Varun Gandhi (termed as Hindutva faces of BJP) for campaign due to a high (18%) muslim population. Unfortunately the gamble did not work. Though their performance is not as bad especially since there was a clean wave in favor of SP, however, a party that had UP as its bastion in the 1990s and now reduced to a third option is worrying for BJP leadership.

4. The major shock in the UP elections was for INC. Rahul Gandhi campaigned extensively in UP and the mainstream media hyped his campaign to such levels that everyone felt that Cong might regain its lost ground and might have a role to play in the Govt formation. Cong could only add 6 seats to its previous tally of 22 - abysmal. This is the second successive failure of Rahul Gandhi as party's chief campaigner - last being in Bihar where they could not get even into double digits. The communal card of providing special quota to Muslims within a quota and showing Batla encounter where terrorists were killed and a police officer died as fake did not go down well with the voters.

5. UP elections are mostly based on caste/religious equations and they continue to be so. The rise of few small parties especially the Peace Party - party termed to be of the Muslims has fared impressively and has cut into the vote share of Cong. and BSP for whom Muslim votebank is critical. 

6. The anti-corruption movement of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev did play some part in the ouster of BSP and in very less seats for Cong, however, with a clear wave in favor of SP, it is difficult to gauge the impact. 

7. UP elections however have thrown some pleasant surprises which suggests that the voter cannot be taken for a ride. Congress losing all its seats in the Gandhi bastion of Amethi and Rae Bareily is a big setback for the dynasty who have done very little for their constituencies. BJP losing Ayodhya seat for the first time since 1991 suggests that the era of Ram is all but over. A big drubbing for India's law minister Salman Khurshid's wife Louise Khurshid suggests that Muslims are now thinking before voting for their candidate and cannot be fooled by rhetoric. 

Punjab

1. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and BJP combine won a second consecutive term in Punjab - a history of sorts since no party since 1967 has come to power for a second successive term.

2. SAD-BJP combine's win especially when anti-incumbency could have played a major role is credited to Sukhbir Singh Badal and their campaign strategies. 

3. This is a huge setback for INC who were sure of winning Punjab. However, infighting within Cong leaders and issues over who will be their CM candidate much before the ballots were cast led to their debacle.

Uttarakhand

1. This is the closest it can get in a 2-party fight between BJP and INC. INC has a very slender lead of 1 seat (INC - 32, BJP - 31, seats for majority - 36) and though being the single largest party will be called upon by the Governor to form the Govt., it has to be seen who will be able to get the independents and most importantly the 3 seats of BSP.

2. Mayawati's BSP will play a big role in govt. formation. However, the political uncertainty will continue in this state since any party that sits in opposition will continue approaching candidates to dethrone the govt. 

3. Strategically, this is again a huge setback for INC. Riding the anti-incumbency wave and a poor show by BJP govt. during majority of their rule, INC was pretty sure of forming the next govt. 

4. That it became such a photo finish is attributed to General Khanduri who was made the CM by BJP leadership few months before the election. His clean image and his passing the Jan Lokpal helped in BJP's revival. 

5. Shockingly, the man credited for BJP's revival Gen. Khanduri lost his own seat - beauty of democracy and elections.

Goa

1. This is the only state where anti-incumbency played a huge role and the poor governance of Cong led to the win of BJP with a clear majority.

2. BJP's revival is credited to its CM candidate - Manohar Pannikar, who infact, is the first IIT graduate to be the CM of a state. His clean image and his developmental agenda led to BJP's resounding victory.

3. Important to note that Goa recorded a very high 82% voting on the voting day - a sign of increasing voter awareness in democracy.

Manipur

1. Cong won the second term in Manipur quite convincingly. This is perhaps the only saving grace for the Congress.

Overall

1. Cong has fared poorly in almost all states - much below its own expectations. The mood across India appears to be anti Cong especially in light of massive anti-corruption campaigns by Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev.

2. BJP had a disappointing outing in UP. However, they managed to get Goa, Punjab, and Uttarakhand might go their way based on some political manipulations. Big advantage for BJP in this elections is that they are slowly becoming an inclusive party. Though Muslims still do not prefer them but they have voted for BJP's candidates on developmental plank. BJP fielded 5 Christians in Goa and they won signifying that developmental agenda can attract the voter irrespective of religion.

3. There is a lot of time before 2014 General Elections are to be held. However, BJP needs to sort out its PM leader soon for the party to do well in the elections. Will it be a Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi face off is to be seen?



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Saurabh Saksena

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